War Pass one to beat in Tampa Bay Derby

Horseracing Betting Lines

03/13/2008 - Oldsmar, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner War Pass will be the overwhelming favorite for Saturday's $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby. The 2007 champion two-year-old will face six challengers in the 1 1/16 mile race.

War Pass will attempt to become the second consecutive two-year-old champ to win the Tampa Bay Derby. Street Sense won last year's race on his way to becoming the first Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner to capture the Kentucky Derby.

Trained by Nick Zito, War Pass will break from post three with regular rider Cornelio Velasquez aboard. The colt opened his 2008 season with a dominating win in an allowance race last month at Gulfstream Park.

War Pass is undefeated in five lifetime starts for owner Robert LaPenta with earnings of better than $1.4 million.

"I think this one will be a little bit more of a race for him," said LaPenta. "It'll be 1 1/16 miles, it'll be over a new track, and we're just looking for him to continue to move forward."

Kentucky Derby winning trainer Barclay Tagg will saddle Big Truck on Saturday. Big Truck was second in Tampa Bay Downs' Sam F. Davis Stakes in February. The three-year-old will be ridden by Eibar Coa from post six.

Owned by Eric Fein, Big Truck has won two of six starts for $156,880. He was fifth in the Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park in January and fourth in the Remsen Stakes last November.

Atoned, second in the Remsen Stakes, has drawn the far outside post with former champion jockey John Velazquez riding. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Atoned is owned by Dogwood Stable.

The colt has finished second in his last three starts after winning the Continental Mile at Monmouth Park in August. He has earned $136,757 in seven starts with two wins and four second-place results.

Here is the complete field for the Tampa Bay Derby in post position order: Cigar Man, Ron Allen; Gentleman James, David Amiss; War Pass, Cornelio Velasquez; Make Me Zach, Jose Rivera II; Dynamic Wayne, Pablo Morales; Big Truck, Eibar Coa and Atoned, John Velazquez.

The race has a scheduled post-time of 5:50 p.m. (et).

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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