Top-25 battle pits Tar Heels against Wildcats

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/27/2007 - Tucson, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A rare non-conference treat late in the season takes place in the desert this afternoon, as the fourth-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels come calling on the 17th-ranked Arizona Wildcats in Tucson.

The Tar Heels have won three straight games and improved to 5-1 in ACC play with Wednesday's 88-60 rout of Wake Forest in Winston-Salem. Roy Williams' squad has lost just twice this season, falling to Gonzaga in late November and then again at Virginia Tech on January 13th.

The Wildcats on the other hand struggled in recent weeks, dropping three consecutive tilts before responding in a big way against rival Arizona State on Wednesday, 71-47. The lopsided win moved Lute Olson's team to 14-5 overall, but only 5-4 in Pac-10 play.

This is the seventh all-time meeting between these two prolific programs, with the series all knotted up at three games apiece. Last season North Carolina posted an 86-69 win in Chapel Hill, the first meeting in this series that did not occur at a neutral site.

The Tar Heels are an extremely young team, but the scary thing is, it hasn't mattered in 2006-07, as the team ranks second in the nation in scoring (87.6 ppg), getting it done on 50.4 percent shooting. Four of the top five scorers are either freshman or sophomores, so the future is certainly bright in Chapel Hill. All-American Tyler Hansbrough has definitely not suffered a sophomore slump, as he leads the team in both scoring (18.5 ppg) and rebounding (8.1 rpg). He is followed in both categories by one of the nation's premier newcomers in freshman Brandan Wright (15.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg). The 6-9 phenom is shooting a ridiculous .646 from the floor and leads the team with 34 blocked shots. Other freshmen of note include guard Wayne Ellington (12.4 ppg, .404 from three-point range) and Ty Lawson (9.0 ppg, team-high 101 assists). In the rout of Wake Forest, Ellington led five Tar Heels in double figures with 18 points. Lawson poured in 15 points, Hansbrough just missed a double-double with 13 points and nine rebounds, while Wright and Danny Green chipped in 12 points apiece.

Arizona has the personnel to win a shootout with any team in the nation and that includes the explosive Tar Heels. The Wildcats are converting just about half of their shots thus far (.499), resulting in a healthy scoring average of 83.4 ppg. All five starters are averaging double figures, but the strength lies in the frontcourt, with a trio of athletic forwards. Marcus Williams leads the team with 18.1 points and 7.6 rebounds per. He is followed closely by Ivan Radenovic (16.0 ppg, 7.8 rpg) and Chase Budinger (15.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg). The backcourt is no slouch either, with guards Mustafa Shakur (14.2 ppg, 7.6 apg) and Jawann McClellan (11.7 ppg) making their presence felt. Despite not having Williams in the lineup last time out (one-game suspension), Arizona was able to make light work of the Sun Devils. The team shot 50 percent from the floor overall, as four of the team's five starters notched double digits. Budinger led the charge with a huge double-double, finishing with 21 points and 10 rebounds. McClellan added 14 points, followed by Jordan Hill, who filled in admirably for Williams, netting 12 points and grabbing nine boards. Radenovic finished things off with 11 points.

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SPORTS BETTING - Tennis is an underrated and under-utilized bettors' sport.

Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?"

A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."

Here's what happened next (abridged version): Agassi won his tourney. Boston won his $40,000. I wrote sportsbook.

In the ten years since, how much has been wagered on the big-time tennis events? Put it this way: The Nevada Gaming Commission doesn't even track the number year by year because it's so small.

"Tennis makes up about one-tenth of one percent of our take," says Lucky's bookmaking boss Jimmy Vaccaro. "The last big golf major we probably had $100,000 worth of bets. In tennis, we might have written two big tickets."

Tennis' lack of popularity amongst the American bettoratti is no surprise, really. For starters, the biggest sports betting holidays -- the Super Bowl, the NCAA tourney -- are must see TV. People, at least the degenerates I know, plan vacations around watching those events in Vegas sports books.

But Wimbledon? Doesn't exactly reel in the whales. "Seriously, it's the nuts as an event," says Boston. "But who even knows when it's on?"

Here's another reason that helps explain why golf gets traction, something I call "The Bubbe Theory." My Bubbe is pushing 95 and has cataracts so bad that, to her, even the most crystalline Chicago day is mostly cloudy. But she still listens to the Cubs games, and she still calls me in a fit if she disagrees with something Rick Telander writes in the Chicago Sun Times. She's a sports fan. If she doesn't know you, you're just filling a niche. And niche players, even historically good ones like Roger and Raf, don't drive betting volume. Only the highest profile names attract square money, which inflates wagering totals like a shot of saline to the lips. Bubbe, and the public, loved Agassi, tennis' last cross-the-rubicon, mainstream draw. She also has a crush on Tiger. She's given me standing orders to put a sawbuck on the big cat whenever I walk through a sports book (or mistakenly tap into one via my Internet machine.) That explains why the Masters is getting $100K in action at some books while the four tennis majors might not get that combined this year.

This isn't a case of tennis being a difficult sport to bet. In fact, in Europe, it's probably the second most popular sport for gambling after soccer. Granted, as the WSJ football betting last week and The Mag's Shaun Assael examined in even greater depth last year, that might be because gamblers across the pond see it as an easy game to fix. But it could also be because, over there it holds the kind of sway the big two do over here.

Street corners in Spain are peppered with public courts and kids doing their best Raffy impressions. In some war torn parts of Eastern Europe poverty-stricken kids view tennis as an escape route, like football or basketball here. A couple years ago The Mag's Lindsay Berra wrote a great piece about Belgrade's Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. They learned the game as kids while bombs were raining down on their homeland. They practiced in drained swimming pools. Not exactly Nick Bolletierri conditions.

In the United States, casual fans think tennis is played four times a year. But on the tightly packed European continent, national interest in homegrown talent runs deep every weekend. Of the ATP's current top 20 players, only two, tennis betting and James Blake, are American. Fourteen are from Europe, representing six different countries.

No wonder fans from Lisbon to Bhudapest get jacked up for the net game, whether it's Wimbledon or a low-level tourney like the Estoril Open in Portugal (congrats to Spain's Albert Montanes for winning that one, btw). Chances are good that someone representing their flag will not only be playing, but have a shot at winning.

And that's all any bettor can ask for.

To visit this sports book go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs.

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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