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07/30/2010 - Norfolk, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There's a difficult decision ahead for Mid- Eastern Athletic Conference football, and there may not be a right or wrong answer considering both of the given options have merit.
"A win-win situation," according to Norfolk State football coach Pete Adrian.
Just as the FCS is expanding its playoff format from 16 to 20 teams this season, Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference schools are weighing in on the idea of giving up the automatic bid afforded its champion, beginning in 2011, to return to a bowl game against the champion of the nation's other Historically Black Colleges and Universities league, the Southwestern Athletic Conference.
Talk of the potential Legacy Bowl has gone on for some time. Decision day is nearing.
Ironically, as FCS conferences desperate for an automatic bid like the Pioneer League and Great West circle the waters, there's good reason for the MEAC to considering giving up its bid. ESPN is believed to be offering around $1.5 million to the MEAC and SWAC for the television rights to such a bowl game.
The SWAC already foregoes sending its champion to the playoffs to have its own championship game, which draws huge crowds and revenue that stays within the conference. The FCS playoffs, meanwhile, aren't much of a revenue-generator for schools with small fan bases or those that, like the MEAC, rarely host.
"Hopefully it will be at some point in time in the fall, or before. At the latest in the fall," MEAC commissioner Dennis Thomas said today regarding the MEAC's decision during the conference's football media day.
"It's part of my responsibility to identify new revenue streams. And this is one of many revenue streams that I have brought to the table as commissioner. As you know, with the economy these days, every institution in our conference, their states are facing tremendous cutbacks and deficits. This is another proposal to vet with our membership to see whether or not we want to take advantage of a new revenue source."
North Carolina Central and Savannah State will begin participating in MEAC football next year, but Thomas said the proposal would be voted on only by the chancellors and presidents of the nine existing member schools: South Carolina State, which has been named the preseason favorite to win a third straight conference title, along with Bethune-Cookman, Delaware State, Florida A&M, Hampton, Howard, Morgan State, Norfolk State and North Carolina A&T.
A majority vote will determine the MEAC's future direction, Thomas added. If the vote was taken today, it surely would have been close, with South Carolina State, Florida A&M and to a lesser degree Delaware State believed to be the strongest proponents of keeping the status quo and not sacrificing the FCS automatic bid. What direction the other schools are leaning is up for speculation.
"You look at what's going on in college football today in general with the big guys," South Carolina State coach Buddy Pough said. "You know, Texas saved the Big 12, or whatever number they are now; Nebraska left the Big 12 to go to the Big Ten because of money. If those kind of people are making decisions based on fundraising, finances, that kind of stuff, then why in the heck would a little bitty outfit like us who needs a hundred times more money than they do not at least explore the possibilities of what could be?"
"Both ways, it's really a win-win situation, whichever way you want to go," Adrian said. "Obviously, we like being in the playoffs, but if the bowl game is something that's going to be on national TV, as it's supposed to be in front of 30, 40,000 people, that's bigger than any playoff games. It's just a question of which way we go. We don't know yet."
The MEAC and SWAC played a bowl game during the 1990s - the Heritage Bowl, with the conference champions having the option of playing in the game or going to the FCS (formerly Division I-AA) playoffs. If a conference champion chose the playoffs, the No. 2 team would be invited to play in the Heritage Bowl.
In a twist with the Legacy Bowl, the conference champions would square off, and other teams in the conferences could still have the chance to go to the playoffs, though they would have to be strong enough to earn an at-large bid. It seems unlikely for the MEAC, which hasn't won a playoff game since 1999. Florida A&M won the MEAC's only national title in 1978, but it was only a four- team playoff then.
The MEAC has won four playoff games since the field was expanded to 16 teams in 1986.
"South Carolina State (which fell at Appalachian State, 20-13, in last year's first round) showed that this conference has probably made the biggest gains in terms of quality play as a conference," said Florida A&M coach Joe Taylor, who had some playoff near-misses at Hampton before he switched schools. "Certainly the CAA, everybody is chasing them - that's the flagship, they put teams in they've won it. Buddy showed last year that we have somewhat closed that gap with some of these stronger leagues within FCS. That's important, that you compete for the best, for the ultimate prize. I think you're going to see that continue to happen."
Taylor adds that recruiting would suffer if the MEAC surrendered its playoff bid, but Adrian says it's not necessarily true. "You can say that I guess," Adrian said, "but when you look at the big guys, if you're not at a BCS school, you've not playing for the national championship and they still get the good recruits."
Some believe the Legacy Bowl would be a better experience than, say, losing a first-round playoff game. There are few games nationally in early to mid- December, when the Legacy Bowl would take place, so there would be a better chance for gaining national exposure.
"When you talk about going into a bowl game," Morgan State coach Donald Hill- Eley said, "it gives our young men an opportunity to experience that atmosphere of the bowl games, it gives them an opportunity to compete against another conference, to be able to go and spend three or four days away and be representation of your conference."
"The plusses would be a couple-day bowl game and the exposure from that," Delaware State coach Al Lavan added, "and the fact some revenue from those games would be equally distributed between the two teams involved, but also the remaining revenue would be dispersed to the remaining teams. That the plusses for it. I think there's good reason to certainly consider it."
Pough's South Carolina State squad has won 19 straight MEAC games, has a veteran team which won every conference game by at least 12 points last season, and again is led by senior quarterback Malcolm Long, the preseason conference offensive player of the year. Despite SCSU suffering losses in the first round of the playoffs at Appalachian State each of the last two seasons, including the hard-to-swallow defeat last year, Pough still prefers that experience over the MEAC's possible alternative.
"I enjoyed being in the playoffs," he said. "I also have confidence in the fact that the powers-that-be who make these kinds of decisions will make good decisions. They asked us for our input and we tell them what we like. Of course, some of us want to be in, some of us would like to be out. The one thing that I can tell you is that none of us take this lightly as far as how we decide what we're going to do."
MEAC PRESEASON POLL (Head Coaches and Sports Information Directors)
1. South Carolina State (15 first-place votes), 315 points; 2. Florida A&M (2), 268; 3. Norfolk State, 190; 4. Hampton (1), 167; 5. Morgan State, 166; 6. North Carolina A&T, 150; 7. Delaware State, 120; 8. Bethune-Cookman, 68; 9. Howard, 32
PRESEASON MEAC ALL-CONFERENCE TEAM
Offensive Player of the Year - Malcolm Long, QB, South Carolina State
Defensive Player of the Year - Julio Sanchez, LB, Hampton
First-Team Offense
QB- Malcolm Long, South Carolina State. RB- DeAngelo Branche, Norfolk State; Philip Sylvester, Florida A&M. TE- Lamont Bryant, Morgan State. WR- Willie Carter, Howard; Isaac West, Howard. OL-Johnny Culbreath, South Carolina State; Juavahr Nathan, South Carolina State; Josh Harrison, South Carolina State; Kendall Noble, Norfolk State; Sam Timothy, South Carolina State.
First-Team Defense
DL- Andre Carroll, Delaware State; Kenrick Ellis, Hampton; Josh Turner, Norfolk State; Jayson Ayers, South Carolina State. LB- Alvis Graham, Florida A&M; David Erby, South Carolina State; Julio Sanchez, Hampton. DB- Qier Hall, Florida A&M; Justin Ferrell, North Carolina A&T; Quay Long, North Carolina A&T; Darren McKahn, Morgan State.
First-Team Specialists
PK- Trevor Scott, Florida A&M. P- Nicholas Adams, Morgan State. Ret- Dwight Fluker-Berry, Norfolk State.
Second-Team Offense
QB- Anthony Glaud, Delaware State. RB- Jaashawn Jones, Delaware State; Mike Mayhew, North Carolina A&T. TE- Sherron Childress, Norfolk State. WR- Kevin Elliot, Florida A&M; Richard Christie, South Carolina State. OL- Christopher Sands, Florida A&M; Michael Ola Folorian, Hampton; Lawrence Brewer, Morgan State; Calton Ford, Norfolk State; William Falakiseni, Norfolk State.
Second-Team Defense
DL- Ryan Davis, Bethune-Cookman; Brandon Peguese, Hampton; Micah Stanfield, North Carolina A&T; Ronnell Ferguson, South Carolina State. LB- Reginald Sandilands, Bethune-Cookman; Anthony Taylor, Norfolk State; Julius Wilkerson, South Carolina State. DB- Curtis Holcomb, Florida A&M; Semaj Moody, South Carolina State; Devonne Quattlebaum, South Carolina State; Ricardo Silva, Hampton.
Second-Team Specialists
PK- Blake Erickson, South Carolina State. P- Alex Grubb, North Carolina A&T. Ret- Larrone Moore, Delaware State.
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The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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