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07/06/2010 - Joliet, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Nationwide. Date: Friday, July 9. Race: Dollar General 300. Site: Chicagoland Speedway. Track: 1.5-mile oval. Start time: 8:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 100. Miles: 250. 2009 winner: Denny Hamlin. Television: ESPN. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.
Danica Patrick once again will get plenty of attention in NASCAR this week. Not only is Patrick making her fifth Nationwide Series start, but she's also competing in her home state of Illinois.
Chicagoland Speedway is located almost 120 miles southeast of Patrick's hometown of Roscoe, IL.
This track is not an unfamiliar place for Patrick, who has competed in five IZOD IndyCar Series races here. Patrick's third and most recent IndyCar pole came at Chicagoland during her rookie season in 2005. She's finished no worse than 12th here.
Will previous track experience at Chicagoland help her on Friday night?
"It's always quite different in a stock car," Patrick said. " I don't think there's any way that being familiar with the track can hurt me. But it's really about me learning what it takes for me in a stock car to be happy on the track, to be comfortable, to get the most out of myself."
Patrick continues her learning curve in NASCAR, and it has been a challenge.
Two weeks ago at New Hampshire, Patrick competed in her first Nationwide race in four months. Patrick made contact with Morgan Shepherd and then hit the wall in the opening laps. She completed the race, but finished five laps behind in 30th place.
Patrick has struggled somewhat in IndyCar this year, as she currently sits 11th in points. Earlier this week, Patrick started 21st and finished 20th in the at Watkins Glen, NY. She finished second in June at Texas, which is her best run since her first victory in the series came two years ago in Japan.
The 300-mile Nationwide race at Chicagoland will feature 14 Sprint Cup regulars, including Joey Logano, the defending race winner, and his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Kyle Busch, who has six Nationwide wins so far this season.
Last year at Chicagoland, Logano passed Busch for the lead just before a caution for debris came with 15 laps remaining. While Busch and the other leaders pitted for new tires, Logano's crew chief, Dave Rogers, elected to keep his driver on the track.
With older tires, Logano impressively held off Busch during the final eight laps for his third Nationwide win of the season. Logano and Busch combined for 174 laps led in the 200-lap event, with Logano leading the most with 96.
Forty-eight teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Dollar General 300.
<< Blum to have surgery
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Houston Astros infielder Geoff Blum will
undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow Wednesday morning.
The operation is scheduled to take place at the Texas Orthopedic Hospital and
will be perfor
<< This Week in Auto Racing July 9 - 11
Joliet, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's a busy weekend of racing, as the NASCAR
Sprint Cup and Nationwide Series run under the lights at Chicagoland Speedway.
The Camping World Truck Series returns to action at Iowa Speedway, and Formula
One rev
<< Blazers sign Babbitt
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Portland Trail Blazers have signed forward
Luke Babbitt, the 16th overall pick in this year's NBA Draft.
Babbitt was selected by Minnesota, but was then traded on draft night, along
with forward Ryan Gom
<< Brewers P Gallardo put on DL, will miss All-Star Game
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Yovani
Gallardo was put on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday due to a strained left
rib cage muscle.
Gallardo suffered the injury during the third inning of Sunday's
Youkilis leaves game >>
St. Petersburg, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Boston Red Sox first baseman Kevin
Youkilis left Tuesday's game with an undisclosed foot or leg injury.
Youkilis was removed from play prior to his at-bat in the fourth inning after
he apparently hurt th
Cano among initial six chosen for HR Derby >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano
was among six players chosen initially for this year's All-Star Home Run
Derby, to be held next Monday in Anaheim.
Other players to commit from the Ameri
Rangers-Indians game delayed after fan falls from upper deck >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tuesday's Indians-Rangers game was stopped
for about 15 minutes during the bottom of the fifth inning after a fan fell
from the upper deck while reaching for a foul ball.
The fan fell down to the grandstand l
Span's hit in eighth boosts Twins over Blue Jays >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denard Span's RBI single in the eighth proved
to be the difference, and the Minnesota Twins beat the Toronto Blue Jays, 7-6,
in a back-and-forth affair at Rogers Centre.
Span finished with two RBI for the Twi
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.
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