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06/28/2010 - Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A muddy racetrack at Churchill Downs proved no deterrent Monday morning for two of the best known thoroughbreds in training. Defending Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird worked out over an off track at the historic facility.
Rachel Alexandra, with Shaun Bridgmohan in the saddle, had her final workout before being sent to Saratoga by trainer Steve Asmussen. The four-year-old filly covered five-furlongs in 1:03 over sloppy footing. She galloped out six furlongs in 1:17.
"She handles it really well," Asmussen said. "She went good. We've got travel plans this week and want everything to go smoothly."
Asmussen will be sending the champion and others to historic Saratoga on Wednesday. The hot weather in Louisville convinced Asmussen to ship to upstate New York a week early.
"It's time," said Asmussen. "I'll be very happy when she's settled in there and we can get into our routine up there."
Owned by Stonestreet Stables and Harold McCormick, Rachel Alexandra got her win of the year on June 12 with a 10 1/2-length victory in the Fleur de Lis at Churchill Downs. After two second-place finishes to begin 2010 the filly looked like her old self in the 1 1/8-mile stakes.
Later Monday morning, Mine That Bird put in a workout over a muddy Churchill track. The gelding went five-furlongs in a very fast 59 4/5 seconds. This was his final workout before making his 2010 debut.
Calvin Borel, the four-year-old's regular jockey, had Mine That Bird gallop out six-furlongs in 1:14 3/5 with trainer D. Wayne Lukas watching.
"I told Calvin we needed to let him do it with no prompting today, just let him do it on his own," Lukas said. "I told him I'd like to see him finish up and if he'd get it in a minute to 1:01, that would be about right. Once I turned him loose and I rode over by the rail to see how deep it was, I thought 'If he does that, he's going to be really going good'. And then he goes 59- and-four.
"I couldn't be happier. Every step has been right down the line. I like the way that he's changing, mentally and physically. That's the big thing. We know he can run if everything's right. Physically, he's so much stronger, he might be 150 pounds heavier than he was last year. And mentally, he's really getting good."
Overnight rains caused the Churchill track to come sloppy as training began Monday morning. As the day progressed the track condition improved to muddy.
"He's just blossomed out," said Borel. "How good is he? I don't know, but we're going to find out. I think he's a good horse. I don't care what anybody says, he wasn't a fluke."
Mine That Bird, owned by Mark Allen and Dr. Leonard Blach, has not raced since finishing ninth to Zenyatta in the 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic. He could start in one of two races this weekend at Churchill: a 1 1/16-mile allowance race on Saturday or Sunday's $175,000 Firecracker Handicap at a mile on the turf, closing day of Churchill's 42-day Spring Meet.
"We'd like to start him here,' Lukas said. "I used that Firecracker as a back- up. I know he's never been on the turf. I really don't want to ship him. I have the Salvatore Mile (July 3) at Monmouth, but I'd like to just leave him in his own stall and try him. If he gets beat, this first one is a means to an end.
"We'll wait and see how the next two days look. I have no reason to believe he won't bounce back from this work. He does every one of them so easy. He has amazing efficiency of motion. I've had some pretty good horses that I thought could get over the ground. I don't know if any of them got over it lighter than he does."
Last week Lukas indicated that the Whitney Handicap on August 7 at Saratoga is the immediate goal for Mine That Bird.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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