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02/28/2009 - Berkeley, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 22nd-ranked UCLA Bruins and California Golden Bears will both try to remain in the Pac-10 title race tonight, as they lock horns in a pivotal matchup at Haas Pavilion.
UCLA and Cal, along with Arizona State, are all tied for second place in the Pac-10 at 10-5 and they each trail Washington, which sits at 12-4. The Bruins remained in the hunt for their fourth straight Pac-10 championship on Thursday, recording a 76-71 win at Stanford. It was a nice rebound for UCLA, which was coming off a shocking and critical home loss to Washington State last weekend. Winners of two of their last three games, the Bruins are now 21-7 overall on the season.
As for Cal, it put itself back in title contention on the strength of a five- game winning streak. Most recently, the team hosted USC on Thursday and nipped the Trojans, 81-78, in overtime. It was the 16th win in 17 home outings for the Bears, who improved to 21-7 overall.
California though, trails the all-time series with UCLA, which holds a 130-94 advantage, including an 81-66 victory in the first meeting of the season.
Josh Shipp sparked the Bruins on Thursday, as he dropped in 24 points and grabbed seven caroms in a win at Stanford. Alfred Aboya tallied 16 points and Nikola Dragovic finished with 10 and four boards. The Bruins shot an efficient 51.8 percent from the floor, including an 8-of-16 showing from three-point land. The sound shooting performance is nothing new though, as UCLA is hitting on 50.3 percent from the field and 40.3 percent from beyond the arc this season. Darren Collison, who was held to just seven points on Thursday, currently leads UCLA in scoring at 14.8 ppg and he is also dishing out a team- high 4.9 apg. Shipp, a 43.4 percent three-point shooter, adds 13.5 ppg, while Aboya contributes 10.1 ppg and a team-high 5.9 rpg.
Patrick Christopher turned in a career-high 29 points to power to the Bears past USC in overtime of a crucial bout on Thursday. Jerome Randle got involved with 15 points and eight helpers, while Theo Robertson had 10 points and six boards. Cal connected on 54.2 percent of its total shots and also went 5-of-11 from downtown and 24-of-27 at the foul line. The Bears have had great success making shots from all over this season, knocking down 49.1 percent from the field, 44.2 percent from long distance and 75.8 percent at the stripe. Randle tops the roster in scoring at 17.7 ppg and he is also distributing a team-high 5.0 apg. Christopher follows with 15.0 ppg and Robertson chips in with 12.2 ppg on an impressive 53.4 percent shooting from three-point range. Jamal Boykin rounds out the double-figure scorers with 12.2 ppg and he is also pulling down a team-best 6.5 rpg.
<< Tigers go in search of 20th straight win
Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The fifth-ranked Memphis Tigers put the
nation's longest winning streak on the line today, as they entertain the
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles in Conference USA play at the FedExForum.
Since losing to Syra
<< Big Ten brawl pits Buckeyes against Boilermakers
West Lafayette, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 16th-ranked Purdue Boilermakers will
try to avenge an earlier loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes, as the two Big Ten
programs clash at Mackey Arena today.
Purdue leads the all-time series with OSU, 79-7
<< Top-ranked Panthers in Newark to tangle with Pirates
Newark, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top-ranked Pittsburgh Panthers still have
some work to do if they are to be crowned Big East champions and that work
begins this evening in Newark, as the Panthers take on the Seton Hall Pirates
at the Prudenti
<< Sooners visit Red Raiders in Big 12 action
Lubbock, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The third-ranked Oklahoma Sooners have endured
back-to-back defeats, and they will attempt to get back to their winning ways
in today's Big 12 Conference clash with the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
On Monday night,
Sharks make a stop in Montreal >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Jose Sharks will shoot for their sixth win in seven
games when they visit the Montreal Canadiens for tonight's battle at Bell
Centre.
The Sharks are leading the Western Conference with 93 points and are just
three
Leafs streak into Ottawa >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Riding their longest winning streak of the season, the
Toronto Maple Leafs head into Ottawa's Scotiabank Place tonight for a
divisional showdown with the rival Senators.
After sweeping a home-and-home set with the reeling
Sabres limp into road test against Isles >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Buffalo Sabres are going through tough times right now,
while the New York Islanders have endured their share of hardships all season
long.
The injury-plagued Sabres will try for a much-needed victory over the
Islande
Struggling Rangers host Avs at MSG >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A recent head coaching change was designed to shake the New
York Rangers out of a lengthy funk, but so far the switch hasn't produced
improving results.
The badly-slumping Blueshirts will attempt to snap a four-game losing
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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